Présentation sur YouTube.

Using a multi-level perspective approach combined with top-down macroeconomic models, we analyse the situation of the GCC countries in the perspective of a global transition to zero-net emissions before the end of the century. Based on these analyses we propose strategic and political options for these oil and gas exporting countries. We show that it would be unwise for GCC member states to adopt an obstructionist strategy in international climate negotiations. On the contrary, these countries could be proactive in developing international emissions trading market and exploiting negative emissions obtained from CO ₂ direct reduction technologies.

A bottom-up technology rich model ETEM-Qatar is then used to assess different scenarios for a transition to zero-net emissions in Qatar. It is shown that Qatar could i) start immediately to foster hybrid and electric cars for mobility, ii) develop electricity generation from solar sources, iii) develop carbon-free hydrogen production, iv) introduce carbon capture and storage in all industrial sectors and, v) develop actively direct air capture with carbon capture and storage to produce emission permits to be sold on an international carbon market. In the long-term, carbon-free hydrogen exports and emission permit sales could contribute to compensate the gas exports revenue losses that are expected in a global zero-net emissions context.

Bibliography

G-2022-18 GCC countries strategic options in a global transition to zero-net emissions by Frederic Babonneau, Ahmed Badran, Alain Haurie, Maxime Schenckery et Marc Vielle

G-2022-17 Transition to zero-net emissions for Qatar: A policy based on hydrogen and direct air capture development by Frederic Babonneau, Maroua Benlahrech et Alain Haurie