Groupe d’études et de recherche en analyse des décisions

Interpolation of extreme precipitation of multiple durations in eastern Canada

Jonathan Jalbert Professeur adjoint, Département de mathématiques et de génie industriel, Polytechnique Montréal, Canada

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Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for extreme precipitation events are widely used to design civil infrastructures like sewers and dikes. An important issue raised by the Canadian Standards Association concerns the sparsity of the location where IDF curves are available. The goal of the present work consists in properly interpolating the extreme precipitation of several durations in order to compute the IDF curves everywhere in Eastern Canada. In order to gather physical information where no observation is available, a reconstruction of the historical meteorology is used as the covariate for interpolating extreme precipitation characteristics. Such a covariate is included in a hierarchical Bayesian spatial for the extreme precipitation. This spatial model is especially suited for the covariate gridded structure, hence enabling fast and precise computations. This model provides reliable IDF curves over the whole spatial domain.

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