Groupe d’études et de recherche en analyse des décisions


The Indian MARKAL: Innovations, Extensions and Policy Analysis


This paper describes the adaptation of MARKAL model to a developing country. The model has a planning horizon up to the year 2035. Logistic curve has been used for long term trend projections. Step­wise linearized performance characteristics and costs of technologies and energy resources have been used to represent the variations due to factors like location, interest rates, labour prices, management practices, and scale economies. The developing country dynamics have been represented by including the observed trends in those end­use energy choices which are more driven by developmental considerations. The scenarios analyzed include carbon mitigation, subsidy to renewable technologies and an energy efficient transport infrastructure scenario. Dantzig's two­stage stochastic programming approach has been used to examine the immediate implications of long­term uncertainties in macroeconomic growth and carbon mitigation. Step­wise linearized end­use demand functions have been used to incorporate the price elasticity of demands in analyzing the carbon mitigation strategies.

, 24 pages