Groupe d’études et de recherche en analyse des décisions


Prévision de la demande de soins à partir d'un système d'information décentralisé

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This paper deals with a prediction model for the nursing care demand in a surgical department. The model is based on a description of disease dynamics by semi-Markov stochastic processes and on the identification of typical care requirements associated with each state of disease. The prediction model has been implemented on a decentralized information system using a small desk computer, and the methodology has been tested in both a simulated and real environments.

The results show a good predictive capability on an horizon of several days. This should permit the nursing care managers to improve their resource allocation.

, 35 pages