This multi-model analysis examines the prospects of hydrogen in the Canadian and German energy systems, and particularly of hydrogen exports from Canada to Germany. A common scenario framework captures different future techno-economic pathways for electrolysis as well as large-scale hydrogen production and trade subsidy schemes. The common scenario framework aligns eight energy-economy-environment (E3) models and a prospective LCA based on E3 model results.

In the E3 model results, climate targets in Canada and Germany lead to a phase-out of unabated fossil hydrogen production. Besides that, results show varying perspectives of different models on the role of different low-carbon hydrogen production technologies and their timeline both in Canada and in Germany. For Canada, the models report 247-518 PJ of low-carbon hydrogen provision by 2050 in the standard scenario. For Germany, low-carbon hydrogen provision by 2045 in the same scenario is at 592-756 PJ, with substantial import amounts in two out of three models.

Results on Canada-Germany hydrogen or derivative trade indicate that without subsidies on trade, hydrogen derivative exports from Canada to Germany are competitive with production in Germany, but when expanding the view to domestic Canadian hydrogen demand and other potential supply countries, competitiveness based on direct cost becomes less clear. At the same time, "soft factors" that are not represented in the models, such as the existence of an experienced energy industry and traditionally stable relations between both countries, could change the picture in real-world considerations.

The direction of macroeconomic effects of electrolysis technology development and hydrogen policy shows no consistent strong tendency in the analyzed model results.

Findings of the prospective LCA on liquid hydrogen and ammonia exports from Canada to Germany reveal a substantially higher GWP100 for ammonia compared to liquid hydrogen.