Groupe d’études et de recherche en analyse des décisions


Future of the Canadian Oil Sector: Insights from a Forecasting-Planning Approach

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It is increasingly important to provide the relevant data for strategic decisions related to oil production and the marketing of oil products. We propose the use of a forecasting model to define a production profile for the Canadian oil sector to 2050. Our approach considers both economic variables (prices) and physical variables (production and infrastructure) by establishing a link between well count, oil price, and oil production. Our methodology is based on practices developed in the oil industry. Indeed, the well count is used as a key component of planning and decision-making in matters such as capital and operational expenditures. We combine our approach with the Hubbert logistic function to take into account the impact of the age of the producing wells. We calibrate our forecasting model using a Canadian database of historical production data. The records come from the Eastern Canada offshore and Canadian oil sands projects that are of growing importance in the national oil production. We test our model under a particular scenario for oil prices, including an extrapolation of the historical price trends. Our results show the evolution of oil production and indicate when peak production is achieved for each of the oil sources considered.

, 17 pages

Ce cahier a été révisé en novembre 2013