Groupe d’études et de recherche en analyse des décisions


Understanding Environmental Issues Using System Dynamics Methods. Pressure on Natural Resources in Southern Madagascar

The tropical dry forest in Androy, southern Madagascar, is threatened with disappearance by many activities. We can see in the literature and government documents the fact that the rural population is little concerned by natural resources conservation. To debate this complicated subject, multidisciplinary approach allows us to understand the different dynamics. This paper explains deforestation as a central concern among several factors causing environmental degradation in Androy. To do this, we use a system dynamics methodology for analyzing interlinks and causal relations between socio-economic and environmental variables. Deforestation is driven by many interacting factors such as a limited suite of recurrent core variables, of which the most evident would be socio-economic conditions, populations' growth and climate. Taking this into account, simulations of a socio-economic-environmental model is conducted.

, 21 pages