Group for Research in Decision Analysis


Boole's Conditions of Possible Experience and Reasoning under Uncertainty

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Consider a set of logical sentences together with probabilities that they are true. These probabilities must satisfy certain conditions for this system to be consistent. It is shown that an analytical form of these conditions can be obtained by enumerating the extreme rays of a polyhedron. We also consider the cases when: (i) intervals of probabilities are given, instead of single values; (ii) best lower and upper bounds on the probability of an additional logical sentence to be true are sought. Enumeration of vertices and extreme rays is used. Each vertex defines a linear expression and the maximum (minimum) of these defines a best possible lower (upper) bound on the probability of the additional logical sentence to be true. Each extreme ray leads to a constraint on the probabilities assigned to the initial set of logical sentences. Redundancy in these expressions is studied. Illustrations are provided in the domain of reasoning under uncertainty.

, 18 pages

This cahier was revised in June 1994