Group for Research in Decision Analysis

G-2019-14

Long-term planning of a flexible generation portfolio

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We are witnessing an acceleration in the uptake of renewable energy in power systems. Because of the associated variability and uncertainty of renewables, power systems need to have an adequate supply of flexibility to allow for suitable management of short-term operations. So far most of the work in this area has neglected how flexibility needs associated with renewables are fulfilled as part of dispatchable generation capital investments decisions. To address this challenge, we propose an approach to plan the dispatchable generation mix of a power system needed to counteract variability and uncertainty of significant shares of variable renewable generation. The approach exploits the linear time-invariant feature of variable generation using historical phase planes of capacity (in MW) and ramp (in MW/min) to bridge the gap between long-term capacity planning and short-term intra-hour flexibility. This approach is much more computationally tractable than other proposals, while also being able to capture adequately short-term operational features like ramping and net load variability. Numerical tests are performed on a realistic datasets to substantiate the effectiveness of the approach.

, 16 pages