International energy trading is of vital importance to Canada’s continued economic growth. The uncertainty on Keystone XL and Gateway pipelines will affect the projection of Canadian oil sands export and production. We have been developing a two-stage Stochastic Programming EC-SIAM (Stochastic Integrated Assessment Model) to explore the implications of energy production and exports. The Hotelling framework on modeling depletable resources will be reviewed and refined to better project Canadian Oil Sands, Venezuela Unconventional Crude, and US Shale Gas production.
Group for Research in Decision Analysis