Group for Research in Decision Analysis

Mathematical Models for Evacuation Planning

Atsushi Takizawa Kyoto University, Japan

Recently, large-scale disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, and floods occur frequently in many countries. Since Japan is prone to natural disasters, every local government has disaster plans. Among them, the evacuation plan is very important as proactive/backward provisions. Since such kinds of plans by a local government are given to become desk theory, it is desirable to validate them quantitatively. For this purpose, simulations using a descriptive model such as a multi-agent are sometimes used. Meanwhile, built environment is gradually becoming intelligent as represented by the term "smart city" or "smart building". Therefore, it is meaningful to explore the possibility of the smart navigation for evacuation. For this purpose, not a descriptive model but a canonical model like a dynamic network (a.k.a flow overtime) model seems to be more applicable. I will talk about the outline of the evacuation planning and mathematical models for it we have researched until now.