Group for Research in Decision Analysis

Assessing wind resource adequacy for peak demand

Kristen R. Schell University of Michigan, United States

There are almost 50,000 individual wind turbines currently operating in the continental United States. Federal tax credits, as well as local price differences, have helped spur past and future investment in the wind industry. While this increase in wind capacity, at times, provides a remarkable percentage of load with renewable generation, variable wind power output is not often synchronous with peak demand, which raises the issue of its contribution to overall resource adequacy. We propose a new method for assessing wind resource adequacy in the planning phase, utilizing cross-spectra analysis of wind speed and electricity system load time series. The results indicate which geographic locations in an electricity system have wind resource potential that is most able to contribute to meeting peak load. This metric gives wind farm planners information on where to site wind farms that reduce reliability risk and increase supply adequacy. Such information is particularly important as electricity systems move toward maximum levels of variable renewable power penetration. Results are shown for three major electricity markets of interest – CAISO in California, NYISO in New York and ERCOT in Texas.

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Poster_Seminar_march_15.pdf (200 KB)