Group for Research in Decision Analysis

Mid and long-term passenger demand forecast: The Kenza approach

Daniel Sallier Bombardier, Canada

CORS Montreal Section - Double Seminar on Applications of OR

SCRO

I invented in early 1995 and developed since a behavioural method for passenger demand forecasting. This method is called the Kenza approach. It has been initially used by Airbus Industrie in the late 90s and represents, today, the primary demand medium and (very) long term forecasting tool of Aéroports de Paris (CDG & Orly). It has been selected by the Korean Ministry of Transport (MOLIT) in 2014 for the long term passenger demand forecast of South-East Korea. Because of very long lead-time developments and even longer life cycles of their products/infrastructures, both aircraft and engine manufacturers, airports and civil aviation authorities, if not the financial community, do have very strong methodological expectations which would fully supported long term forecasting techniques. One of the main anticipated assets of the Kenza approach is to provide a better assessment and understanding on how the demand elasticity is likely to evolve in the future. To start with we illustrate the conceptual difference between behavioural approaches and econometric/statistic ones for forecasting purposes. To continue the empirical concepts leading to the 1st Kenza law of demand will be exposed and discussed. Then special attention will be paid to demand elasticity properties as they result from the Kenza law of demand. To finish with the US domestic market will be used as a benchmark basis for comparing different long-term forecasting models: the Kenza approach and more classical econometrical ones.


1st seminar: Dynamic scheduling of home care patients to medical providers
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