Group for Research in Decision Analysis

Great Probabilists Publish Posthumously

Stephen M. Stingler

Jacob Bernoulli died in 1705. His great book Ars Conjectandi was published in 1713, 300 years ago. Thomas Bayes died in 1761. His great paper was read to the Royal Society of London in December 1763, 250 years ago, and published in 1764. These anniversaries are noted by discussing new evidence regarding the circumstances of publication, which in turn can lead to a better understanding of the works themselves. As to whether or not these examples of posthumous publication suggest a career move for any modern probabilist; that question is left to the audience.